Bring on the ALCS! Here’s your first look at how Yankees and Guardians stack up
The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees are headed to the 2024 American League Championship Series!
New York moved a step closer to its first World Series appearance since 2009 by knocking out the Kansas City Royals in four games and now will have to get past another American League Central team after Cleveland outlasted Detroit in a thrilling ALDS.
What have we learned about each of these teams? What does each side need to do to punch a ticket to the Fall Classic? And who could be the ALCS difference-makers? ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield break it all down.
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Cleveland Guardians
What has surprised you most during the Guardians’ postseason run?
Rogers: There has been some good and some bad. The good: Cade Smith has become Cleveland’s midgame closer who can shut down a dirty inning then come back out for more, as an up-and-down between frames is no issue for him. He provides so much value bridging that gap to the late innings. In the ALDS, he appeared in all five games and gave up just one run on one hit in 6⅓ innings. On the other hand, the Guardians’ actual closer, Emmanuel Clase, has looked human. Kerry Carpenter‘s Game 2 home run stunned everyone, including Clase. Giving up another run in Game 4 didn’t help the star reliever’s confidence. Clase’s struggles — even if they seem more blip than trend — have been surprising.
Doolittle: Cleveland’s glaring virtues entering October were clear: Jose Ramirez on the hitting side and a deep, impregnable bullpen on the pitching side. Looking at the series as a whole, the offense was carried by the likes of Steven Kwan, David Fry and Brayan Rocchio. And with the bullpen, particularly Clase, a little uneven, Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd were crucial in keeping Detroit down in the early innings. Bibee/Boyd … it’s not exactly Feller/Lemon, or even Kluber/Carrasco, but the Guardians would not be around if the rotation had not held up as well as it did.
Why will it (or won’t it) continue against the Yankees in the ALCS?
Rogers: The Guardians have many strong right-handed options they can bring out of the bullpen in big spots. You can see a scenario where Smith faces Aaron Judge five or six times in the series, not to mention Hunter Gaddis and Clase coming in against Judge. Smith’s splits are actually even better against lefties so it’s not like Juan Soto would have an easy go against him either. The bullpen options will keep Cleveland in the mix.
Doolittle: The early innings, those first two trips through the Yankees’ lineup, will be fraught with anxiety for Guardians fans. With the LDS behind us, the formula for Cleveland remains what it was entering the playoffs: Get to the middle innings with a lead and let Clase, Gattis, Tim Herrin and the rest go to work. I just don’t see the Guardians keeping a lid on the top of the Yankees’ order, which is a whole different challenge than what Cleveland saw against Detroit. So you wonder just how often Stephen Vogt will be able to get a lead to his power pen.
Who is the one player who will decide the Guardians’ ALCS fate?
Rogers: Take your pick: Jose Ramirez or Josh Naylor. Which does the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium benefit the most on the Guardians? Assuming the Yankees don’t let Ramirez beat them, this could be a series when Naylor steps up his game at the plate. At some point, the Yankees will slug, and Ramirez and Naylor have to match them.
Doolittle: Sure, Naylor was an RBI machine during the season and has enjoyed some huge postseason moments (including against the Yankees) during his young career. Still, Ramirez is the one Cleveland hitter most likely to carry the offense, especially in those crucial early innings. If the Guardians are able to get those much-needed runs that will mean getting a lead to their relievers, Ramirez has to step up to provide them and he’s capable of doing it even if Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon are on top of their games when they take the hill.
New York Yankees
What has surprised you most during the Yankees’ postseason run?
Passan: Luke Weaver, best closer left in the playoffs? That’s a slight exaggeration, but considering all the damage done against closers already this October, Weaver’s four-out save in Game 1, five-out save in Game 3 and series-clinching save in Game 4 illustrated that the Yankees have taken a guy who was expected to serve as a bulk reliever and turned him into a back-of-the-bullpen guy. Since taking over as closer in early September, Weaver hasn’t allowed an earned run in 12 appearances and has struck out 29 over 15⅓ innings while allowing only nine baserunners. For a team that wondered who was going to close after Clay Holmes faltered, Weaver has provided the answer — and with the added bonus of being able to go multiple innings if necessary.
Schoenfield: That, yes, they can win without Aaron Judge being The Bambino, The Mick and Mr. October wrapped into one. Judge went 2-for-13, didn’t drive in a run and scored just twice in the ALDS. Of course, it helped that the Yankees didn’t need to score a lot of runs because they played a Royals team that had been hitting like a dead-ball era lineup since the middle of September. The next round might not be much different: The Guardians aren’t going to score a lot of runs, so the Yankees can win these low-scoring games as long as Weaver and the bullpen continue to slam the door. And maybe Judge relaxes knowing they can win without him hitting home runs. Although that would help.
Why will it (or won’t it) continue against the Guardians in the ALCS?
Passan: It will continue because managing a bullpen over a seven-game series is a lot more difficult than three or five games, and the Yankees’ ability to wear down pitchers could be the thing that finally gets to the Guardians’ bullpen. It won’t continue if the Yankees continue to get middling starting pitching, which they had until Gerrit Cole’s Game 4 masterpiece. The likelihood of their bullpen continuing its scoreless streak, or even something close to it, is minimal, even if the Guardians’ lineup is no juggernaut. Cleveland’s ability to roll out a nearly entirely left-handed lineup against Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt with the soft-tossing Tim Hill and Tim Mayza the only lefty options out of the bullpen is quite advantageous.
Schoenfield: Simply put: Judge is due. This is a guy coming off arguably the greatest offensive season ever by a right-handed batter. Sure, there are ways you can attack him and teams have done that very successfully in Judge’s recent postseason series. But one reason Judge hit .322/.458/.701 is that he’s able to make the necessary adjustments. It will help take the pressure off Judge if Soto can get going as well. Soto did draw some walks against the Royals and putting more runners on base will force Cleveland pitchers to attack Judge a little more — especially if Giancarlo Stanton continues to hit well (it might be time to move him to the cleanup spot). Walks are nice, but Soto needs to produce some power as well.
Who is the one player who will decide the Yankees’ ALCS fate?
Passan: It has got to be Aaron Judge. The Yankees have managed to win without him doing anything. One run. No runs batted in. Judge’s career playoff numbers are rough already compared to his regular-season success, but 2-for-13 with five strikeouts is something different altogether for the soon-to-be American League MVP. It’s what’s most scary about the Yankees, actually: If they’re winning without Judge, imagine what it’s going to be like when he starts hitting.
The Guardians, meanwhile, are here because manager Stephen Vogt has managed his bullpen brilliantly all season. While Judge doesn’t have an egregious platoon split — he destroyed right-handers and left-handers during the regular season — Vogt has a wide array of dominant right-handers, from Cade Smith to Hunter Gaddis to Emmanuel Clase, at his disposal. As evidenced by him pulling Matthew Boyd after just two innings in the division series Saturday, he will lean heavily on his relief corps so hitters don’t get multiple looks against pitchers. So not only will the best hitter in baseball this season be trying to find his swing, he’ll do so with a new arm and varying stuff almost every plate appearance.
Schoenfield: Since we’ve already covered Judge and Weaver, let’s go with someone on the other side: Jose Ramirez. The Guardians aren’t going to score many runs no matter what – and while they have a few potential contributors with the likes of Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and David Fry, their offense revolves around Ramirez doing some damage. For all the knocks against Judge in the postseason, Ramirez has been even less productive in his playoff career, with just three home runs in 37 games. If Ramirez hits, the Guardians have a chance. He hit just .130 against the Yankees in the regular season (3-for-23), however, so the Yankees had success against him.
